Our May 30th Livestream was supposed to be a simple demo of our evolved Cannonball methodology. Instead, it turned into something more valuable: a real-time case study of how to go from knowing close to nothing about an industry to having a complete go-to-market strategy with scored segments and $855K in identified ARR opportunity.
All in about 60 minutes. With lots of coffee and one very patient AI assistant named Claude.
The Setup: Why Numeo.ai Caught Our Eye
Jordan and I picked Numeo.ai not because we're logistics experts (spoiler: we're definitely not), but because they represent something we see everywhere in vertical SaaS: AI solving deeply human problems in industries ripe for disruption.
Numio's agentic platform replaces freight brokers; those experienced humans who've spent 30+ years understanding routes, managing capacity, and negotiating rates. As I explained in the livestream, these folks are brilliant at what they do, but they're also risk-averse and expensive. And frankly, they sleep when loads are still moving.
The Real Question: Could we use our Existential Data Point framework to map an entire category we'd never touched before?
The Answer: Absolutely. But not without some entertaining detours.
Act I: Doug Explains Logistics (Badly)
"So you've got stuff coming into port, right? Coming in on ships. And if you're Walmart, guess what? You got all the carriers locked down."
Look, I may have financed Arkansas Best Freight back in my GE Capital days, but watching me explain modern logistics to Jordan was... educational. For both of us.
The key insight that emerged: Brokers are essentially human algorithms managing twin pressures of utilization (keep trucks moving) and profitability (get the best rates). They're optimizing for cash flow while trying not to leave money on the table.
Sound familiar? That's exactly what AI excels at.
Act II: Jordan's Brain Is a Plinko Machine
"Jordan's brain is a plinko machine, I'm convinced. What's happening for him is he's picking out data markers and he's thinking about hey, this is likely going to be my PVP formula."
While I was building mental models of supply chains, Jordan was already three steps ahead, identifying the data points that would matter:
Rate per mile (money = gold standard for PVPs)
Capacity utilization (existential pressure)
After-hours opportunity (timing arbitrage)
Compliance data (government-produced PVPs - Jordan's favorite)
Act III: The Existential Data Point Evolution
Here's where things got interesting. We started with the obvious choice: utilization rate. If you're below 70%, you're bleeding cash. Simple, right?
But as Claude dug deeper and Jordan's pattern recognition kicked in, we discovered something more nuanced: the twin pressures of utilization AND profitability create the real existential crisis.
The Breakthrough: It's not just about keeping trucks moving. It's about revenue leakage - the combination of:
Idle capacity (trucks sitting empty)
Rate negotiation gaps (accepting suboptimal rates)
Communication delays (missing loads entirely)
Existential Data Point based on Utilization (only)
For a $2M revenue carrier, 15% leakage equals $300,000 lost annually. That's not just a nice-to-have efficiency gain - that's existential.
Act IV: Claude Gets Scary Good
"Jordan: Don't fuck me, Claude. Don't fuck me, Claude."
Watching Jordan prompt Claude was like watching a master craftsman work. He'd feed in context, ask for specific data sources, then refine and iterate until Claude was producing insights that honestly surprised all of us.
Claude didn't just regurgitate information. It synthesized patterns:
After-hours opportunity: Small carriers miss 30-40% of profitable loads between 6 PM and 6 AM
Rate arbitrage: Human dispatchers accept first offers 73% of the time due to time pressure
Market intelligence: Combining DOT data with load board patterns to predict availability
The AI wasn't replacing human insight - it was amplifying our framework with data we could never process manually.
The Results: Five Segments, $855K ARR Opportunity
By the end of our session, we had completely mapped Numio's market and their 1st year potential ARR, assuming a typical low year 1 market penetration rate:
The Meta-Lesson: Framework Beats Industry Knowledge
Here's what makes this case study interesting: We knew almost nothing about carrier logistics going in.
What we did have was:
A proven framework (Existential Data Points + Pain-Based Segments)
AI tools that scale research beyond human capability
Jordan's pattern recognition (seriously, it's supernatural)
My ability to ask dumb questions that unlock insights
What You Can Steal From This Process
The Cannonball GTM Methodology isn't industry-specific. Here's the exact sequence we used:
1. Define the Existential Data Point
Start simple, then layer in complexity. We went from "utilization rate" to "revenue leakage rate" as we understood the market better.
2. Map Pain-Based Segments
Use the EDP to identify who feels the pain most acutely, then score them on:
Pain intensity
Conversion likelihood
Sales efficiency (ACV vs CAC)
3. Let AI Scale Your Research
Claude processed 47 different data sources to find PVP opportunities. We could never do that manually.
4. Iterate in Real-Time
Notice how our understanding evolved throughout the livestream? That's the methodology working - expand, contract, refine.
The Honest Truth About Our Process
Look, we're not geniuses. Jordan just happens to have a supernatural ability to spot patterns, and I ask enough questions to eventually stumble onto something useful.
What makes this replicable isn't our individual brilliance - it's the framework. The Cannonball methodology turns good research into great insights by forcing you to think in terms of existential pressure and measurable pain.
Plus, AI is getting scary good at this stuff. Claude didn't just answer our questions - it started predicting what we should ask next.
Got questions about applying this to your vertical? Drop them in our Friday office hours (11 AM PST, paid subscribers only). Jordan loves showing off his pattern recognition, and I love watching him do it.
Keep Cannonballing,
Doug and Jordan
P.S. - If anyone from Numio.ai is reading this, we genuinely think you're onto something massive. The freight industry is ripe for this kind of disruption, and your timing couldn't be better. Also, sorry for dissecting your entire market on a livestream. It's what we do.
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